Ball State vs. UMass prediction: MACtion picks, odds, best bets for Wednesday

All due respect to Bob Chesney at UCLA and Will Stein at Kentucky, Joe Harasymiak would have my vote for the Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year Award if the college football season ended today.

That may sound like hyperbole for a coach who is 4-4, but consider this: Since joining FBS in 2012, UMass has gone 26-134 and has never won more than four games in a single season.

The Minutemen were the lone winless team (0-12) in FBS last year, Harasymiak’s first in charge.

Getting UMass to a bowl game, their first-ever, would be a massive achievement for Harasymiak, and the bookmakers think they should get one step closer on Wednesday. The Minutemen are a 3-point favorite over Ball State on Midweek MACtion.

Ball State vs. UMass odds, prediction

UMass set the tone with a blowout win at Rutgers in Week 1, but they’ve had plenty of other impressive results, including one-score losses to Buffalo and Miami (Ohio), two teams fighting for a spot in the MAC Championship. Had those coin flips gone the other way, UMass would be fighting for a spot atop the conference standings right now.

Nonetheless, the majority of the Minutemen’s results have been encouraging, save for a couple of duds against Eastern Michigan and UConn.

Ball State, on the other hand, has had plenty of ugly showings. The Cardinals (3-5, 2-2) are on a two-game winning streak, but those victories came against Bowling Green and Sacramento State, two of the worst teams in FBS.

Cole Earlewine (20) of the Ball State Cardinals. Diamond Images/Getty Images

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Ball State has proven it can beat some of the worst teams in the country (the Cardinals also have a win over Stony Brook), but they have fallen flat when they need to step up in weight class.

There have been expected blowouts against Ohio State and Northwestern, but Ball State wasn’t competitive against Liberty, Kent State, or Toledo, either.

UMass has the better overall body of work, a much stronger statistical profile, and they are at home on Wednesday.

It may sound crazy, but the UMass Minutemen deserve more respect than this spread indicates.

The Play: UMass -3 (-110, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.