Up 12% in a month! Can the BT share price really gain another 39%?

The BT Group (LSE: BT.A) share price has surged 12% in the past month. Yet despite this impressive rally, one leading City broker believes the FTSE 100 telecommunications giant could climb another 39% higher from here.

With billions invested in transforming its infrastructure, could the business finally be approaching a turning point?

As I write on Wednesday morning (4 November), the stock is trading at 222.9p with a market cap of £22.2bn.

Despite its recent gains, the stock remains well shy of its 242.09p 52-week high set back in May 2026.

Interestingly, several City analysts are tipping the stock to achieve further gains. JPMorgan has an Overweight rating and a 310p price target, implying a potential rise of 39.1% from today's price.

For perspective, a £10,000 investment could grow to approximately £13,908 if that forecast materialises, excluding dividends and trading costs.

However, not everyone shares this optimism.

Here's how several major brokers' price targets compare:

Clearly the experts are split over which way the stock price is heading. Dispersion can create opportunities for savvy investors, however.

With management set to deliver the company's half-year results tomorrow (5 November), what are the key factors that could push its share price higher?

Could the stock climb further?

I think the biggest opportunity lies in the company's ongoing infrastructure transformation.

Through Openreach, the company has invested billions expanding its full-fibre broadband network across the UK. While this has placed pressure on short-term cash generation, the longer-term benefits could be substantial.

Importantly, management has ambitions to significantly improve free cash flow as infrastructure spending eventually moderates.

I think shareholders could benefit from a meaningful valuation uplift if management delivers on its strategic objectives and provides a sustainable platform for future growth.

We remain on track to deliver our targets, including cash flow of c£2.0bn this year and c£3.0bn by the end of the decade.

Group CEO Allison Kirkby

Combined with a dividend yield of approximately 3.7%, I can see why analysts are split on how to value the stock and there are certainly some risks to consider.

So, what am I expecting from the BT results tomorrow?

What to watch for

Some of the key risks facing the business at the moment are:

• Fierce competition including from alternative broadband providers.

• Pressure on customer numbers and declining legacy revenues.

• Substantial debt burden which could impact future earnings growth.